Alternative Latin Investor Issue 6 September/October

Alternative Latin Investor Issue 6 September/October 2010 click here for a free issue
Issue 6 Content Index

• Infrastructure Municipal Bonds in Latin America
• Emerging Markets Let the World See Your Wares in the Right Light
• Investment Flows and Stock Market Returns p
• Agribusiness Beekeeping in Latin America
• Art Pinta: The Contemporary and Modern Latin American Art Show
• Commodities The BP Oil Spill
• Sowing Pools: Alternative Financing
• Funds Latin America’s Favorite Sport: For Sale
• Philanthropy Ashoka: Inspiring and Supporting Tomorrow’s Leaders
• Regulation Due Diligence: You Bought the Company, Now What?
• Renewable Energy Opportunities in Argentine Biodiesel
• Ventures Real Estate Colombia: Founder Chad Smalley
• Economist Emerging Market Forecaster
• Wine Stocking up for World Cup 2014
• Hedge Funds The Spectrum of Investors for Latin American Hedge Funds by Merlin Securities

Source: Alternative Latin Investor 22.09.2010

FPL: Mexico FIX Event 30.09.2010

The FPL Mexican Briefing will provide an unrivalled opportunity for industry representatives to participate in a forum where the real issues, challenges and opportunities impacting the region’s electronic trading community will be addressed. Through a series of presentations and panel sessions this one day event, closing with networking drinks, will offer an invaluable and informative experience for local market participants who will benefit from:

An interactive program that truly addresses market needs, providing impartial, high quality content  The knowledge and experience of industry leading speakers  Separate business and technical streams that generate intelligent debate and educational opportunities  Significant networking opportunities throughout the day and into the evening at the post-event cocktail party A dedicated team of industry practitioners from the FIX Protocol Mexican Working Group, including senior representatives from some of the region’s leading investment firms, who have a detailed understanding of the challenges facing the markets today, are driving the event agenda to ensure it meets the trading needs of firms in Mexico in 2010.

2010 Topic Areas Will Include: Algorithmic trading and the options available to the Mexican trader High frequency trading and the opportunities and challenges it presents The technical and regulatory developments emerging in the Mexican markets including the RINO rules Key trends emerging in the local market and how to trade more easily internationally Implementing the FIX Protocol Using FIX to achieve a low latency solution The recently released FIX algorithmic trading definition language (FIXatdlSM): Generating cost saving and efficiency gains for all market participants involved in the algorithmic trading process The use of FIX beyond equities in multiple asset classes

Asia E-Trading: Electronic Trading in China - Webinar September 7th

Asia E Trading presents the free  1 hour webseminar : Electronic Trading in China

• Overview of the Electronic Trading industry
• Buy-side Algorithmic Trading
• CSI300 Index future
• Latest news on QFII and QDII
• High Frequency Trading and Colocation
• Update: Shanghai and Shenzhen Exchange

Speakers are:

• Lionel Sancenot - Sungard- MD NE Asia & Greater China
• Bill Liu -Qing Ma Investments -Portfolio Manager
• Zennon Kapron - KapronAsia- Principal

REGISTER HERE
Date: 07. September 2010
TIME: 5pm Hong Kong, 10am London, 5am New York

If you can not attend the seminar will be recorded and available on demand

Mexico: Drifting Toward Troubled Waters – September 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

Slow US economy decreases Mexican expectations
The structure of the Mexican economy is unchanged when it comes to the breakdown between local and export markets, and we base our expectation for Mexican economic growth on both markets. We continue to expect a 4.4% GDP growth for 2010 (growths of 4.3%, 7.6%, 4.0% and 1.9% for each quarter, sequentially) while other, more aggressive houses, have reduced this from 5% to nearly 4%.
Despite the most recent reduction in 2H10 growth expectations, we maintain our figure in the belief that the local market will compensate for a likely weaker export scenario that heavily depends on the US economy.

We have assumed since last month that the US would grow at a lower than previously expected pace. Locally, the Mexican construction segment has been the weakest in the industrial sector, while manufacturing has led the economy. We expect export companies, which have been suffering from the weaker foreign market, to recover by year-end, although car exports have performed well even during these tougher times.

Mexican tidbits
Mexico's inflation has been increasing and, from the current annualized 3.7%, we maintain our expectation of it reaching 4.7% by year-end. We believe that our expectation of interest rate hikes in 3Q11 might become market consensus soon.

The FX has moved negatively lately, after three months without definite direction. It has surpassed the P$13/US$ line, the worst level since the end of June. We still expect it to be at P$12 by year end but, if we do not see a downward movement over the next weeks, we might change this expectation to a P$12.25-12.35 range. We do not believe this potential change in the FX scenario would cause any change to Mexican exports, with the main driver here continuing to be the strength of the US economy (and demand).

For August, we have added Alsea and Femsa to our portfolio and increased the weights of America Movil (from 20% to 25%) and Walmex (from 10% to 15%). We also reduced the weights of GenomaLab and Geo (from 10% to 5%), and have withdrawn Cemex.

Read the full market analysis Mexico - Monthly Allocation - September 2010
Source: IXE-Banif, 01.09.2010

Brazil: US economy still in the spotlight – September 2010- IXE BANIF – Monthly Analysis

Little hope for a short-term change in the economy

For September, we foresee that attention will continue focused on the US economy, which has been showing signs of weakness since the beginning of 2H10. This expectation is the same we had for August, which proved to be correct. The main event we highlight for September is the FOMC meeting on the 21st, which might raise market expectations of new measures to improve economic growth. The latest statement on the economy from the President of the Central Bank mentioned that the Bank is ready, if necessary, to intervene to adjust the economic trend. However, its portfolio of potential measures is, in our view, limited due to the current low level of interest rates. Meanwhile, data released on housing, payroll and investment are likely to drive the market in the ST.

Concerning the rest of the world, we believe that Europe will continue out of the spotlight, with Germany leading the local economy well. We believe that the only negative in the month could come from China, which has been releasing some mixed and inconclusive data lately.

In September, with little change in the scenario and no major event in sight, we expect the market to move sideways and with less volatility. Therefore, we decided to maintain our defensive view and keep the core of our previous portfolio. We have added Tietê, MRV and EZ Tec, increased the weight of Petrobras (from 15 to 20%) and reduced the weight of Eletropaulo (from 10 to 5%). We have withdrawn B2W (weak 2Q results without good ST expectations), CSN (due to its deteriorated ST outlook) and Tegma (stellar performance in the month).

Petrobras is the month’s highlight

Last month, we predicted that the start of the political TV campaign in August, at presidential level, would be exciting and move the markets. The reality proved to be very dull, with the Labor Party’s candidate having the unquestionable advantage and no response at all from any of the main financial markets: equity, interest rate and FX. In September, we believe that Petrobras’ capital increase operation will be the highlight. The weak performance of the company’s shares in the past 1.5 years contributed to holding down the Ibovespa. We believe that, after the capital increase, they can have the opposite effect.

When it comes to economic data, we believe the two most important events of the month will take place in the first week. These are the Copom meeting on the 1st and the 2Q GDP report on the 3^rd. We expect an unchanged Selic rate of 10.75% for the former and a 1% change for the later (QoQ seasonally adjusted, or around 8% YoY).

Read full analysis Brazil – Monthly Allocation – September 2010

Source: IXE-BANIF, 01.09.2010